Amoeba’s Lorica: Paywalled Off

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits leaders to holding warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, or well below 2 °C at the worst, but nowhere does it say how much oil, gas or coal must be left in the ground. This is convenient for world leaders, who are happy to talk about curbing fossil fuel demand, but desperate to continue business as usual when it comes to extraction […]

The article from which the above quote is [ahem] extracted is behind a paywall. Therefore, like just about any form of information that’s worth having in today’s world (i.e., information that is not sourced from social media or the various successors of television), it doesn’t exist, at least as far as Your Friendly Neighborhood Amoeba is concerned.

What really burns is that the non-existent source in question, which purports to be about ‘science‘, is festooned with ads for (inter alia) auto insurance and financial services and streaming reality shows (if that’s not irony, YFNA doesn’t know what is). These ads are the only content that the non-subscriber gets to see. Presumably, the ads rake in beaucoup bread for the source, from the unwary who wander by, foolishly thinking they might learn something. And the source still wants to stick its grubby hands in your pockets.

Your Friendly Neighborhood Amoeba is old enough (alas) to remember what happened when the television news people had real news. Important news. News worthy of a viewer’s attention.

They turned the ads off.

So ‘the media’ trained YFNA to treat all presentations with ads as “not news”. So be it. YFNA is doing as he has been trained, and feels no regret or remorse for doing so, for the sins of the media are on their own heads.

But no matter. The news is old. And the essentials are still, for now anyway, obtainable without dealing with paywalls. It says that, in order for global warming to be held at or below the promised level by the start of the 22nd century, energy consumption by all humans on the planet has to go down. Renewables, or nothing.

And, the fossil energy now in the ground has to stay in the ground. Starting, like, yesterday.

Oh, and that’s still not enough.

According to this report from a couple of years ago, extractive industries (iron, copper, the rare earths needed for this computer to work, the raw materials for concrete, yada) account for more than 50% of atmospheric loading of greenhouse gases. The load from burning fossil fuels is on top of this number.

In rich countries, people consume an average of 9.8 tonnes of resources a year, the weight of two elephants. This is 13 times higher than low incomes groups. Much of this is unseen because huge amounts of materials are often needed for a small end product, such as a mobile phone. [Emphasis added]

You think you’re being ‘clean and green’ because you’re working from home and sparing the planet the daily commute? Think again. You need to ditch the car and the electronics. All of them. Or you may as well head out on the highway and roll coal.

According to such ‘news’ as YFNA can glean through the maze of paywalls, Mr. Biden’s administration is committed to reducing society’s contributions to climate change and to rebuilding the nation’s economy from the (still ongoing) COVID-19 disaster – which was predicted in 2016. Your Friendly Neighborhood Amoeba, alas, is not smart enough to figure out how he and his can do both. He does think that he can figure out which of these is going to get lip service, and which is going to get Mr. Biden’s full attention. Fully recognizing that even the lip service could cost Biden and his party control of Congress in the next election, and loss of the Presidency in 2024. Especially if anything like the true costs of making even a distant approach to the necessary climate-change actions are visited upon We the People. And as if Mr. Biden would be anything other than thoroughly sick of the office by then.

Indeed the news is old. To YFNA, it seems that hardly any time has passed since Prof. Michael J. Kelly, FRS, published his critical assessment about how long it would really take to achieve all the promises of ‘renewables’ research (about two decades longer than the claims), and how much it would really cost to withdraw fossil fuels prior to those renewables coming online (and assuming that the costs of, say, rare earth mining for electronics aren’t great enough to offset any gains from renewables dependent on this mining). Namely, about what COVID-19 cost the world’s economies. For an interval of decades.

He and his work were immediately adopted by the climate change denialists, and attacked by the climate change activists, most of whom doubtless expected to profit handsomely from whatever mousetrap they had invented to pretend to assist in the fight against carbon, and didn’t need any naysayers with Ph.D.s interrupting their gravy trains.

Professor Kelly promptly disappeared, probably in extreme embarrassment. Meanwhile, events have played out pretty much as he envisaged them. And we have seen, in the Untied States of America and throughout the world (yellow vests, M Macron?), just how willing the citizens of the world are to accept any clawback in their standards of living – namely, fuggeddaboudit. That Mr. Trump is not in the jail into which he repeatedly threatened to throw Ms. Clinton is a permanent indictment of the character and intelligence of every US citizen – the character and intelligence that would be needed to make even a distant approach to necessary climate-change actions. And his return to power is just an economic hiccup away.

Oh well, we have time. We have a whole nine years, according to this study, before tropical ocean ecosystems start collapsing under the pressure of the increased global temperatures for which our cupidity is responsible, collapses that, once initiated, will start a massive cascade that will be impossible to stop, or even slow down.

Your Friendly Neighborhood Amoeba would tell you more about this study and its implications for life on Earth, including human life.

But he can’t.

It’s behind a paywall.

INCOME, n. The natural and rational gauge and measure of respectability, the commonly accepted standards being artificial, arbitrary and fallacious; for, as “Sir Sycophas Chrysolater” in the play has justly remarked, “the true use and function of property (in whatsoever it consisteth – coins, or land, or houses, or merchant- stuff, or anything which may be named as holden of right to one’s own subservience) as also of honors, titles, preferments and place, and all favor and acquaintance of persons of quality or ableness, are but to get money. Hence it followeth that all things are truly to be rated as of worth in measure of their serviceableness to that end; and their possessors should take rank in agreement thereto, neither the lord of an unproducing manor, howsoever broad and ancient, nor he who bears an unremunerate dignity, nor yet the pauper favorite of a king, being esteemed of level excellency with him whose riches are of daily accretion; and hardly should they whose wealth is barren claim and rightly take more honor than the poor and unworthy.”  – Ambrose Bierce, “The Devil’s Dictionary”

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Amoeba’s Lorica: Losing COVID Religion

“Michigan reported 8,413 new Covid-19 cases on Saturday [10 April 2021], bringing the state’s total pandemic case count to 692,206.”

So proclaimed a post on the Outer Party social media site, decrying the cresting of the monstrous fourth wave of COVID-19 in the Untied States of America (about which, of course, you could find the full story on the poster’s blog and podcast, hint hint). A clueless, and hapless, commentator lamented the heartlessness of those who were failing to recite the sacred COVID catechism (“wear masks, wash hands, distance your foul self from humanity”, commonly preached by the saintly who still have jobs, against the lepers who do not) and prostrate themselves accordingly. Only to be set upon by trolls who, having been cast out of Facebook by its political correctness bots, had descended en masse onto the Outer Party site to, at long last, lift it out of its long-standing online obscurity and ridicule.

The not-empty roads on a Hawaiian Saturday morning. Corner of Lako Street and Mamalahoa Highway, Kailua Kona.Your Friendly Neighborhood Amoeba was contemplating the meaning of all this while sitting in his car, his left shoulder smarting, on the roads of Kailua Kona, Hawai‘i. Roads that had been brought to a standstill by hordes of visitors who had chosen to ignore the warnings about coming to the Big Island, thinking that it was a COVID oasis. And it occurred to him to ask, “What is this fourth wave that all the screaming headlines and social media bashfests are all about? What are the …

[Block your eyes, dear readers, YFNA is about to type a four-letter word.]

“…[ahem] What are the data?

So, when he finally managed to get himself – and the car – home, and while, as usual, he was supposed to be doing something else, he spent some time compiling data on just what the “fourth wave” of COVID-19 looked like on this weekend after Easter, 2021 CE.

And this is what he came up with. In the map, green states are those with no detectable uptick in COVID cases since the abatement of the ‘third wave’ (the 2020 ‘holiday season’, November 2020 – January 2021). Yellow, a slight uptick, possibly not statistically significant. Orange, a definite but small increase in cases. Red, the case peak approaches that of the third wave. (Michigan’s peak is cresting, one hopes, now, whereas Iowa’s was a short, sharp spike in February, since abated.) Grey, no fourth wave because the state had not yet recovered from the third wave. 

In case you missed it:

  • To date, the ‘fourth wave’ exists only in the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and Oregon.
  • The ‘green’ states, with a few prominent exceptions (California, for example), overlap the ‘red’ states of the last two Presidential elections, with the not-green states overlapping ‘blue’ states.
  • Green states encompass locations that span the range from massively restrictive (California) to massively non-restrictive (Texas) states.

OK, that’s, um, uncomfortable. Not least the blasts of snark emanating from the green states, with their vocal rejection of ‘vaccine passports’ and anything else that seems the least bit sensible according to the sacred COVID catechism.

“But Hawai‘i is a COVID oasis, right? Right?!? Say ‘right’, Amoeba, because if it isn’t and my bar closes down because of it, this time for good, it’s a small island and I know where to find your sorry ass, damn you!”

Right. Robert A. Heinlein knew, in 1958, what would happen to aloha under stress, and said so. Alas. We the People didn’t pay attention to that, either. But the question is valid. What, if anything, have all the precautions or lack thereof, all the angst, all the sweating about who does this, or that, or t’other, actually amounted to?

Sure, some states have high case counts, some have low. Some states have high total populations, some have low. Go to the place with the least COVID, yeah? Not so fast. A state might have a lot of COVID cases, but if that state also has a high population, it may be doing better than we think. Conversely, a state with low case numbers, if it also has a low population, may not be doing particularly well.

So, YFNA compiled a ranked list of states by population, and a ranked list of states by total number of COVID cases. For each state, he divided the population rank by the COVID rank. If COVID cases were randomly distributed across the USA, then each state’s COVID score would be exactly 1, as its population rank would be the same as its COVID rank. A state with a COVID score greater than 1 has had more COVID cases than it “should” have, based on its population, and therefore will have (pick one) handled COVID badly / had bad luck. A state with a COVID score less than 1 has had fewer COVID cases than it “should” have, and will have (pick one) handled COVID well / lucked out big time.

Here’s what that map looks like. Green states are in the lowest quintile of population (smallest numbers of people; ranks 41-50). Yellow states are in the fourth quintile, orange states in the third, red states in the second, and magenta states in the first (population ranks 1-10). The numbers represent the COVID score (population rank divided by COVID rank, rounded to two significant figures) for each state.

Here’s the data table. It also presents the rank of each state by population density (PoDe Rank), and a value for the difference (simple subtraction) between a state’s population rank and its COVID rank (COVID Diff). The COVID Difference might give a better picture of how well/badly a state that is near the top or bottom of the population ranking is doing than the COVID Score does.

And some of the takehomes:

  • Most states have COVID scores close to 1, suggesting a distribution of COVID cases that corresponds with population, and not with a state’s size, population density, geography, or political persuasion.
  • In particular, the four most populous states in the nation, two of the bluest (California, New York) and two of the reddest (Florida, Texas) have COVID scores exactly equal to 1; their population and COVID case number rankings are identical. It is hard to imagine four polities that could be more different, and hard to see how the differing actions they took in response to the pandemic have, in the end, made any relative difference.
  • Michigan, the site of the current ‘fourth wave’, has a score of 0.77, suggesting that, until this fourth wave, it had done far better / been far luckier (or had done a poorer job of screening for COVID) than its neighbors.
  • A person coming to Hawai‘i to ‘escape the pandemic’ might as well go to Philadelphia, or Cleveland, or Baltimore, or even (until last month) Detroit.
  • If any state has ‘bragging rights’ about how it handled COVID-19, it is Washington state, ironically the first state in the USA to report the virus, and the first to take action against it (and get its leadership fried for doing so). Assuming, of course, that it has properly reported its COVID cases.

UPDATE – Sink the Mayo Day 2021

The new data table:

A few states have changed position. Mostly, states with higher scores have gone down (example, South Carolina), while states with lower scores have gone up (Michigan). After a month, COVID scores have become more aligned with population, a possible example of regression toward the mean.

So we cheat and we lie and we test, or maybe we don’t. We get the COVID vaccine, or maybe we don’t, and we argue about whether it’s any good and how long it will last if it is. We complain about masks and whether or not we can find a restaurant, never mind get a seat at one, and we bitch about how life hasn’t returned to normal yet, not realizing, or caring, that human life since the discovery of penicillin has been anything but normal, not realizing, or caring, that humanity is setting itself up for a knockout punch from an increasingly grim and determined biosphere, a biosphere whose probing jabs land no matter how we thrash.

Just over a year ago, when the news was full of how We the People would soon put COVID down and initiate a V-shaped economic recovery, YFNA made a more sombre prediction about the outcome of the COVID pandemic. A year later, when the news is full of how the COVID vaccines will save us and usher in a new (and planet-destroying) Roaring Twenties (though one might wish to ask India about that), he stands by his prediction. And hopes that we may be that lucky.

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He and She: Pooling Their Resources

In case, dear reader, you’re tempted into thinking that Your Friendly Neighborhood Amoeba makes this stuff up …

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